Constituency

New Forest West

Party
Conservative
Region
South East
Official portrait of Desmond Swayne
MP

Desmond Swayne

MP's page on parliament.uk

Photo: © House of Commons/Roger Harris (CC BY 3.0), cropped

The cost of Brexit · UK-wide

Brexit's estimated hit to UK economic output (GVA) in 2023

−£188.8bn

−7.7% of output

That's about £2,835 for every person in the UK, compared with an estimate of where the economy would have been without Brexit.

Source: Brexit Cost Project (Alabrese, Edenhofer, Fetzer and Wang, 2026), real terms at 2019 prices

What rejoining could mean · UK-wide

Long-term boost to the UK economy (GDP) from EU membership

+£92bn

at least

Plus at least £43bn a year more in UK exports.

Source: Frontier Economics for Best for Britain

What rejoining could mean here

Estimated boost to the South East's economy (GVA) each year from EU membership

+£1.31bn

a year

Source: Frontier Economics

What voters think in New Forest West

Which EU relationship people in New Forest West most want the UK Government to propose

When they had to choose one

  1. EU membership30.6%, average across GB constituencies 34.3%
  2. Single market6.4%, average across GB constituencies 6.6%
  3. Customs union5.7%, average across GB constituencies 5.3%
  4. UK Government position20.7%, average across GB constituencies 17.4%
  5. Status quo9.4%, average across GB constituencies 8.2%
  6. Loosen ties11.5%, average across GB constituencies 9.7%
  7. Don't know15.6%, average across GB constituencies 18.4%
About this survey

YouGov surveyed 11,927 people. The survey was carried out between 27th May – 11th June 2026.

The survey was conducted using an online interview of members of the YouGov Plc GB panel of 400,000+ individuals who have agreed to take part in surveys.

Voices from New Forest West

  • Brexit has been a disaster for the British economy and for supply chains. It has caused shortages of everything from salads to spare parts to medicines. It has increased inflation. It has had and continues to have a particularly negative effect on young people’s freedom to access education and work in the EU. In a time where the world is becoming increasingly unstable and dangerous, and our erstwhile ally, the USA, has become completely unreliable, it makes good sense to be more closely aligned with our European neighbours. The behaviour of the USA and its president are in fact putting Europeans including ourselves at great risk, a risk the Americans do not share geographically. To combat that risk we need to work ever more closely with our closest neighbours to benefit all our countries and all our citizens and build a brighter future for our children and grandchildren.

    I. R.

    9 November 2026

  • My reasons for wanting the UK to rejoin the EU are many and varied. They encompass all the logical, evidence based financial advantages that come from free trade with our nearest neighbours, together with the personal advantages for me that comes with free movement - wanting to spend my retirement travelling around Europe in my campervan with my dog. But it goes much, much deeper than that. My father, a WW2 veteran, explained the concept of the EU (then Common Market) to me as a child. He said countries that are joined together with laws and trade etc are very much less likely to go to war with each other. This was because even if their values might differ sometimes from the majority, it was still better to be a part of it, particularly economically. Like the best teams and groups, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts and peace should always be the top non negotiable that all parties agree on.

    M. W.

    9 November 2026

  • United we stand, divided we fall applies to countries too. We need close allies to be able to stand up for ourselves in trade, one small nation just doesn't have the barganing power on its own. We would also have stronger defenses against hostile agents whether nations, superpowers or malevolent small groups - hackers etc.

    H. C.

    9 November 2026

  • Where to begin is the difficulty,; we need to get rid of the “red tape” (customs checks ETC.) totally hindering manufacturing in the UK. It is so important for our younger generation to be part of the wider, bigger community (EU). Free movement for jobs and seasonable employment in the UK is needed. Personally I want easier access at the border to the Schengen and EU.

    B. J.

    8 November 2026

Which sectors could benefit most from EU membership?

New Forest West has:

2,626

people employed in manufacturing, mining and utilities

GB average: 4,334 per constituency

5,042

people employed in retail and wholesale

GB average: 6,882 per constituency

2,262

people employed in accommodation and food services

GB average: 2,447 per constituency

Health

as its biggest employing industry

These figures count people who live in the constituency and work in each industry (Census 2021; in Scotland, Scotland's Census 2022).

Why these jobs matter for our relationship with Europe

These three industries employ people in every constituency, and each depends on how easily goods, services and people move between the UK and Europe.

Manufacturing: Frontier Economics found that 81% of the £43 billion a year growth in exports from EU membership would come from manufacturing.

Retail: Rejoining the EU would remove the customs checks and paperwork that have added red tape and costs for shops and their suppliers since Brexit, making it cheaper and simpler to stock goods from Europe.

Food services: Pubs, restaurants and hotels have struggled to fill vacancies since free movement ended. EU membership would let them recruit seasonal workers from across Europe again and help bring down costs for hospitality businesses across the country.

Sources and methodology

Contains OS data © Crown copyright and database right 2026. Contains Royal Mail data © Royal Mail copyright and database right 2026. Contains NRS data © Crown copyright and database right 2026. Source: Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.