Lothian East
- Party
- Labour
- Nation
- Scotland
Douglas Alexander
MP's page on parliament.ukPhoto: © House of Commons/Laurie Noble (CC BY 3.0), cropped
The cost of Brexit · UK-wide
Brexit's estimated hit to UK economic output (GVA) in 2023
−£188.8bn
−7.7% of output
That's about £2,835 for every person in the UK, compared with an estimate of where the economy would have been without Brexit.
Source: Brexit Cost Project (Alabrese, Edenhofer, Fetzer and Wang, 2026), real terms at 2019 prices
What rejoining could mean · UK-wide
Long-term boost to the UK economy (GDP) from EU membership
+£92bn
at least
Plus at least £43bn a year more in UK exports.
What rejoining could mean here
Estimated boost to the Scottish economy (GVA) each year from EU membership
+£583m
a year
Brexit has cost the East Lothian council area an estimated £31m a year since 2016.
How is this worked out?
Gross value added (GVA) is the value of the goods and services produced in an area.
Researchers at the Brexit Cost Project compared each council area's actual output with an estimate of what it would have been without Brexit. They built that estimate from a weighted mix of economies elsewhere, in Europe, the US and other advanced economies, whose output tracked the area's closely before the 2016 referendum.
The difference between the two is the estimated effect of Brexit. It's a modelled estimate, not a measured loss, and the researchers say it should be read as evidence of how places diverged after 2016 rather than as precise accounting.
The figure shown is the average gap for each year from 2016 to 2023, the latest year of official local output data. It's in real terms, at 2019 prices, and is the headline estimate on this council area's page at brexitcost.org. The council area may be larger or smaller than the constituency.
Source: Frontier Economics; council figure from the Brexit Cost Project
What voters think in Lothian East
Which EU relationship people in Lothian East most want the UK Government to propose
When they had to choose one
Support for EU membership here: Joint 46th highest of 631 constituencies
About this survey
YouGov surveyed 11,927 people. The survey was carried out between 27th May – 11th June 2026.
The survey was conducted using an online interview of members of the YouGov Plc GB panel of 400,000+ individuals who have agreed to take part in surveys.
Voices from Lothian East
There are clear benefits for the UK if we rejoin the EU including: access to the single market, reduced trade barriers and boosts to economic growth. Opportunities for people to travel, study, live and work across Europe would be restored,, enabling a return to the rich cultural, social and scientific cooperation we enjoyed pre-Brexit. East Lothian, is particularly reliant on agriculture, tourism and fishing. Restored access to EU agricultural subsidies and the single market would be a major boost to our farmers and fishermen. Freedom of movement would restore the right for EU citizens to live and work in East Lothian, helping to address staff shortages in our hospitality, social care and seasonal agricultural sectors. East Lothian is a vibrant county with a fast growing population. It is clear that our local council has lost many millions of pounds each year as a result of Brexit. That money is much needed to maintain and improve local infrastructure and services to ensure they align with the needs of a growing population that has an aging demographic. Rejoining the EU would reinstate a solid partnership with our European allies that will help to strengthen national security during a time of global unrest.
F. M.
8 November 2026
Which sectors could benefit most from EU membership?
Lothian East has:
people employed in manufacturing, mining and utilities
people employed in retail and wholesale
people employed in accommodation and food services
In the top quarter of constituenciesas its biggest employing industry
Why these jobs matter for our relationship with Europe
These three industries employ people in every constituency, and each depends on how easily goods, services and people move between the UK and Europe.
Manufacturing: Frontier Economics found that 81% of the £43 billion a year growth in exports from EU membership would come from manufacturing.
Retail: Rejoining the EU would remove the customs checks and paperwork that have added red tape and costs for shops and their suppliers since Brexit, making it cheaper and simpler to stock goods from Europe.
Food services: Pubs, restaurants and hotels have struggled to fill vacancies since free movement ended. EU membership would let them recruit seasonal workers from across Europe again and help bring down costs for hospitality businesses across the country.
Sources and methodology
- GVA gap caused by Brexit: Brexit Cost Project
- People employed by industry and biggest employing industry: Census 2021, Office for National Statistics
- People employed by industry in Scotland: Scotland's Census 2022, National Records of Scotland
- Support for full EU membership: YouGov for Best for Britain
- GVA boost for Scotland: Frontier Economics for Best for Britain
- Postcode lookup: postcodes.io, using ONS data
- MP details and photos: UK Parliament Members API
Contains OS data © Crown copyright and database right 2026. Contains Royal Mail data © Royal Mail copyright and database right 2026. Contains NRS data © Crown copyright and database right 2026. Source: Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.