Carlisle
- Party
- Labour
- Region
- North West
The cost of Brexit · UK-wide
Brexit's estimated hit to UK economic output (GVA) in 2023
−£188.8bn
−7.7% of output
That's about £2,835 for every person in the UK, compared with an estimate of where the economy would have been without Brexit.
Source: Brexit Cost Project (Alabrese, Edenhofer, Fetzer and Wang, 2026), real terms at 2019 prices
What rejoining could mean · UK-wide
Long-term boost to the UK economy (GDP) from EU membership
+£92bn
at least
Plus at least £43bn a year more in UK exports.
What rejoining could mean here
Estimated boost to the North West's economy (GVA) each year from EU membership
+£658m
a year
Brexit has cost the Cumberland council area an estimated £1.86bn a year since 2016.
13th biggest estimated loss of 342 council areasHow is this worked out?
Gross value added (GVA) is the value of the goods and services produced in an area.
Researchers at the Brexit Cost Project compared each council area's actual output with an estimate of what it would have been without Brexit. They built that estimate from a weighted mix of economies elsewhere, in Europe, the US and other advanced economies, whose output tracked the area's closely before the 2016 referendum.
The difference between the two is the estimated effect of Brexit. It's a modelled estimate, not a measured loss, and the researchers say it should be read as evidence of how places diverged after 2016 rather than as precise accounting.
The figure shown is the average gap for each year from 2016 to 2023, the latest year of official local output data. It's in real terms, at 2019 prices, and is the headline estimate on this council area's page at brexitcost.org. The council area may be larger or smaller than the constituency.
Source: Frontier Economics; council figure from the Brexit Cost Project
What voters think in Carlisle
Which EU relationship people in Carlisle most want the UK Government to propose
When they had to choose one
About this survey
YouGov surveyed 11,927 people. The survey was carried out between 27th May – 11th June 2026.
The survey was conducted using an online interview of members of the YouGov Plc GB panel of 400,000+ individuals who have agreed to take part in surveys.
Voices from Carlisle
Too painful to relive those Brexit years. Despite being born (to German mother, Latvian father) worked whole life and paid taxes in U.K. felt wholly rejected and sickened by friends and family screaming ‘take back control’ at me. Had bought and done up a small house in northern Spain and jumped at the withdrawal agreement (during Covid). Lost loads of money selling our house (thanks Lettuce Truss) and now spend our retirement money in Spain. How stupid is that for the economy in the U.K.? Of course we should (re)join the EU for the hundreds of reasons you’ve already outlined and the one that rarely gets mentioned - that it’s kept us from internal war (Ukraine notwithstanding) for over 80 years. Plus, all the culture and the useful Polish plumbers etc are now missing. Instead we scapegoat all the brown and black people. Of course I will sign petitions and vote to (re)join, but I’m done campaigning and fighting the idiots. My heart, money and happiness is now in Spain and wild horses won’t drag me back to U.K.
G. S.
9 November 2026
Which sectors could benefit most from EU membership?
Carlisle has:
people employed in manufacturing, mining and utilities
In the top quarter of constituenciespeople employed in retail and wholesale
In the top quarter of constituenciespeople employed in accommodation and food services
In the top quarter of constituenciesas its biggest employing industry
Why these jobs matter for our relationship with Europe
These three industries employ people in every constituency, and each depends on how easily goods, services and people move between the UK and Europe.
Manufacturing: Frontier Economics found that 81% of the £43 billion a year growth in exports from EU membership would come from manufacturing.
Retail: Rejoining the EU would remove the customs checks and paperwork that have added red tape and costs for shops and their suppliers since Brexit, making it cheaper and simpler to stock goods from Europe.
Food services: Pubs, restaurants and hotels have struggled to fill vacancies since free movement ended. EU membership would let them recruit seasonal workers from across Europe again and help bring down costs for hospitality businesses across the country.
Sources and methodology
- GVA gap caused by Brexit: Brexit Cost Project
- People employed by industry and biggest employing industry: Census 2021, Office for National Statistics
- People employed by industry in Scotland: Scotland's Census 2022, National Records of Scotland
- Support for full EU membership: YouGov for Best for Britain
- Regional GVA boost: Frontier Economics for Best for Britain
- Postcode lookup: postcodes.io, using ONS data
- MP details and photos: UK Parliament Members API
Contains OS data © Crown copyright and database right 2026. Contains Royal Mail data © Royal Mail copyright and database right 2026. Contains NRS data © Crown copyright and database right 2026. Source: Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.