Bristol Central
- Party
- Green
- Region
- South West
The cost of Brexit · UK-wide
Brexit's estimated hit to UK economic output (GVA) in 2023
−£188.8bn
−7.7% of output
That's about £2,835 for every person in the UK, compared with an estimate of where the economy would have been without Brexit.
Source: Brexit Cost Project (Alabrese, Edenhofer, Fetzer and Wang, 2026), real terms at 2019 prices
What rejoining could mean · UK-wide
Long-term boost to the UK economy (GDP) from EU membership
+£92bn
at least
Plus at least £43bn a year more in UK exports.
What rejoining could mean here
Estimated boost to the South West's economy (GVA) each year from EU membership
+£639m
a year
Brexit has cost the City of Bristol council area an estimated £260m a year since 2016.
How is this worked out?
Gross value added (GVA) is the value of the goods and services produced in an area.
Researchers at the Brexit Cost Project compared each council area's actual output with an estimate of what it would have been without Brexit. They built that estimate from a weighted mix of economies elsewhere, in Europe, the US and other advanced economies, whose output tracked the area's closely before the 2016 referendum.
The difference between the two is the estimated effect of Brexit. It's a modelled estimate, not a measured loss, and the researchers say it should be read as evidence of how places diverged after 2016 rather than as precise accounting.
The figure shown is the average gap for each year from 2016 to 2023, the latest year of official local output data. It's in real terms, at 2019 prices, and is the headline estimate on this council area's page at brexitcost.org. The council area may be larger or smaller than the constituency.
Source: Frontier Economics; council figure from the Brexit Cost Project
What voters think in Bristol Central
Which EU relationship people in Bristol Central most want the UK Government to propose
When they had to choose one
Support for EU membership here: Highest of 631 constituencies
About this survey
YouGov surveyed 11,927 people. The survey was carried out between 27th May – 11th June 2026.
The survey was conducted using an online interview of members of the YouGov Plc GB panel of 400,000+ individuals who have agreed to take part in surveys.
Voices from Bristol Central
I just want us to be reconnected and to be able to move and work and study freely across the EU. We are better together! I have lots of European friends here and on the continent and my parents have a house in France where we are fully part of the community. Being part of one anothers’ cultures just makes us better, more broad minded and imaginative, inspired, open and alive. Stronger all round. Richer in every way. Being part of the EU is a no brainer and always has been. The damage that Brexit has done is ridiculous. It had served only to confirm - rather painfully - that being part of the EU is clearly the ‘right’ way to go.
Kate Swainson Price
9 November 2026
I have dual nationality (Italian) as does my son. My husband, however, is only a British citizen and is not entitled to Italian nationality. This means that he is only able to visit our family home in Italy and also travel on holiday in Europe for a total of three months per year, so he cannot live there with me. He is also caught up in the queues at airports while our son and I sail through. However, there is often confusion as to which passport to use. I have to show my Italian passport to enter and leave the EU but then show my UK passport to re-enter. This means when taking the ferry across the channel I only show one passport to leave but two to return. Separately to this, I am currently unable to send or receive packages to and from family in Europe due to import charges at both ends. I was appalled to discover that my sister had to pay fees to receive Christmas presents. I have tried buying items from Europe for delivery in UK and had to refuse them at the door due to the horrendous duty fees imposed. Please rejoin the EU!
S. V.
9 November 2026
The Common Market was started after the second of two appalling wars in the 20th Century. It replaced conflict with cooperation and gave us the longest period of peace in Europe since Roman times. The common agricultural policy meant a surplus of food instead of the hunger that the working class had known between the wars. Freedom of movement gave huge economic benefits and enabled goods and labour to travel to where it was most needed.
Barry Cash
9 November 2026
Which sectors could benefit most from EU membership?
Bristol Central has:
people employed in manufacturing, mining and utilities
people employed in retail and wholesale
people employed in accommodation and food services
In the top quarter of constituenciesas its biggest employing industry
Why these jobs matter for our relationship with Europe
These three industries employ people in every constituency, and each depends on how easily goods, services and people move between the UK and Europe.
Manufacturing: Frontier Economics found that 81% of the £43 billion a year growth in exports from EU membership would come from manufacturing.
Retail: Rejoining the EU would remove the customs checks and paperwork that have added red tape and costs for shops and their suppliers since Brexit, making it cheaper and simpler to stock goods from Europe.
Food services: Pubs, restaurants and hotels have struggled to fill vacancies since free movement ended. EU membership would let them recruit seasonal workers from across Europe again and help bring down costs for hospitality businesses across the country.
Sources and methodology
- GVA gap caused by Brexit: Brexit Cost Project
- People employed by industry and biggest employing industry: Census 2021, Office for National Statistics
- People employed by industry in Scotland: Scotland's Census 2022, National Records of Scotland
- Support for full EU membership: YouGov for Best for Britain
- Regional GVA boost: Frontier Economics for Best for Britain
- Postcode lookup: postcodes.io, using ONS data
- MP details and photos: UK Parliament Members API
Contains OS data © Crown copyright and database right 2026. Contains Royal Mail data © Royal Mail copyright and database right 2026. Contains NRS data © Crown copyright and database right 2026. Source: Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.